Market sizing, models and simulators, built by our own data scientists and statisticians from surveys, your data and sources beyond a survey.
A sizing is a chain of estimates, each resting on a source you can check. Change one input, and you can see how far the answer moves.
An illustration, not a client project.
A drawing: a sizing model on graph paper. Four cards, people in the market, buying in the category, considering the brand and taking the offer, multiply into buyers; buyers multiply by spend a year and reach in year one into the year’s value, shown as a range. Each input carries a sticker for its source: desk research, the survey, your data or experts. In pencil, Plan B adds a second channel: reach grows, and the value’s range moves up beside Plan A’s.
Sized in stages
A home services company was weighing a new home-energy proposition in one of its markets.
One household survey sized the market one step at a time, from the addressable market for each product to the households open to the brand and its proposition, read against data the company already held.
Each stage is an estimate from the survey, under the conditions tested.
Sized, then graded
A software company had five candidate countries, and wanted its plan to have an order.
We surveyed the brand’s audience in each, calibrating each market’s sizing to independent market data. A broad set of measures, of the market, of how people use software of this kind and of the brand beside competing tools, rolled up into one grade per market, each shown with its measures.
Brand leadership received an entry order, with the reasoning for each position written down beside it.
We build each simulator around the decision in front of your team, then test what it suggests against what the business can actually do.
A travel company had a fixed date to commit part of its fleet more than two years out, for a summer and a winter season.
What happened next
Part of the fleet later ran seasons the itinerary research had assessed.
Choice models build simulators of their own, for a range, its features and its prices: Conjoint and choice modeling.
Your sales, customer or tracking records can show what each segment is worth, or where a new market behaves differently from one you know. A typing tool can place every customer in a segment, when your records hold the right variables. We check that first.
For the travel company, segments built with its insight team can be named, sized, targeted and tagged across its database and tracking.
Our own AI agents help our researchers look further and check harder, and our people decide what it means. How we use AI
Bring the decision and the data you already hold, with as much or as little detail as you like. We’ll say what a model could add, and which sources it would need.
A partner or director will reply.